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Executive Summary – Negative equity means the homeowner owes more than what the house would sell for. Now the amount of negative equity homes is about 26%. By 2011 it will go up to 48%. Scary.
Source Article: About half of U.S. mortgages seen underwater by 2011
Dropping Home Prices – Deutsche Bank using 100 major USA markets said housing prices would drop another 14% through first quarter 2011 bring the total price drop to 41.7% across the USA. They said that the subprime loans will be 69% upside down by first quarter of 2011, up from 50% 03/09. Adjustable rate mortgages will be 89% upside down by first quarter 2011, up from 77% as of 03/09. They predict some major markets in California, Florida and Las Vegas will have 90% or more of their loans in a negative equity position by first quarter 2011.
Walk Aways – When the mortgage amount owed is greater than the value of the home it is enticing to just walk away from the house and let the lender take it back. This will ruin a person’s credit. In many states the lender can sue the person for the loss they experienced from the walk away. If the person is out of work, already has bad credit etc why would they care? Thus the walk always increase.
Rentals – When the banks are forced to rent these foreclosed houses out then it is the end for the housing market. Walk away from your house with a payment of say $2400 a month plus insurance, maintenance etc and rent a similar house down the street for $1000. The lenders will try desperately to not rent these houses out but eventually they will need the cash flow. This is when the price slide turns into an avalanche. As more and more houses get foreclosed, the rents on these homes will drop more and more thus increasing the incentive to walk away from the house.
How Does It End? – Not sure we are even close enough to the end to understand how bad it will be. I am thinking projections on housing price drops prepared by a bank is not an unbiased study. They are mortgage lenders. I am thinking the real figures will be some 33% worse at least. Jobs are being lost every month. This year it is running at a loss of about 500,000 jobs per month. They a re bragging that in July only something like 371,000 jobs were lost. Remember that these 371,000 lost jobs will in the next few weeks cause more jobs to be lost. Also remember that many of those working are in the public sector holding non-productive jobs that do nothing for the economy. These jobs are funded by taxes and by running the government printing presses. Depending on whom you read there are at least 6,5000,000 jobs lost during this economic downturn. The vast majority of these were private sector jobs.
We are being told that a recover would now take until 2014. This assumes the recovery started now. I don’t see any signs of a recovery. First the amount of jobs lost needs to go flatline then the number becomes positive with new private sector jobs being created. They are still bragging about the declining number of lost jobs when that number is at 371,000 in a given month. The economy will get much worse with more and more unemployed. This will have to drive the crime rate up as people start running out of money. The police state seems to be focused on incarcerating people for violation against the state, not against each other so expect little help from the police state. Eventually people will be afraid to file police reports because of a fear of being prosecuted for making an error on the report, which will be interpreted as lying to police and obstruction of justice, fraud, conspiracy to commit fraud etc. Thus they will keep the crime figures down this way.
Solution – Leave. The government is leaving the door open now to let those malcontents leave. Next what happens is a blind eye is turned towards crime while the poor victimize the middle and upper class. The poor are the easiest to control. The middle class with a knowledge of what is really going on has some threat potential. Combined with the poor turned criminal exploiting the middle and upper classes is the government hammering them with increased taxes bearing down heavily. After a season of this then comes the shut down of the borders, in and out. Then you are in for the long haul until the new system collapses, like they all do.
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