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Introduction - Today Gold broke $1000 an ounce. That is a new level for recent times. In 1980 gold hit $825 which would have an inflationary equivalent today of over $2000 an ounce. The USD is rallying against many currencies and not doing so great against others. The Aussie dollar is at about $0.60 against the USD and expected to drop to $0.50. The Canadian dollar is at $0.80. The USD is strong against the Mexican peso, and currencies in the Far East except the Yen. The eastern European currencies are doing poorly against the dollar. The European economy is awful yet the Euro rides high against the dollar just like the Yen, artificially high. Lately the Swiss Franc is dropping against the dollar.
Explanation – It is obvious to many that the USA manipulates markets. They do this very carefully using their massive resources. The USA needs the Euro and the Yen high now. This is because if the Euro or the Yen went down to a level where they should be they could sell cars in the USA market for a discount of let’s say 25%. So where would this leave the USA automakers if brands like Toyota, Nissan, Honda, Lexus, Mercedes, BMW, Porsche, Volkswagen, Range Rover and so on were able to sell their cars at a price 25% lower than what it is now.
The situation would be much worse for the USA automakers and thus a few million more jobs would be lost and probably never recovered. So the USA is practicing protectionism by manipulating the currency markets. I would guess les than 1/100000 of 1% of the population of the USA would be remotely aware of this. The Yen and the Euro are not going to become reserve currencies because their underlying financial condition is awful. The Swiss Franc poses a risk. Have you seen the latest Swiss Banking Scandals? This of course destroys the Swiss Banks and the onslaught is pushing on.
The Swiss used to have a gold backed currency. They did a way with this some years ago. They more recently sold half of their gold reserves. The USA would really like to see the Swiss Franc drop nicely and of course the Swiss would not like this. They export gourmet items like Swiss watches and chocolate and they can still sell these exclusive products with a high value currency. The USA plods on nonetheless in their quest to keep the dollar artificially strong, but not too strong so as to prevent exports. The USA is scared and needs to keep people buying their debt and countries using the USD as a reserve currency. If demand drops they will go into hyperinflation like where a loaf of bread is $25.00 and a new ford SUV is $190,000. So far the USA is doing not so bad but the Swiss understand the game, probably better than the USA and they are fighting back. They have trillions of dollars in their banks. What if they get smart and only except deposits in Swiss Francs. Then the existing accounts need to convert and then the Swiss Franc soars in value and can easily become a reserve currency. Thus the attack on Swiss Bank Secrecy.
Running the Printing Presses – The problem the USA has is that it is watering down the supply of its currency by churning more out in wholesale quantities. It is using its vast resources to manipulate currency markets to keep the dollar at a reasonable level way above where it should be and at the same time suppress other currencies and artificially elevate more currencies as well. It is a brilliant work indeed. Can they sustain it in the long run? I doubt it. They will get away with it while the rest of the world reacts and recovers from the damage they did and then there will be counter actions that the US will not be able to deal with. China and Russia are two super powers that got hurt badly this time and they are not going to let their guard down again any time soon. The USA is n no position to use gunboat diplomacy against these two countries so what they want to do, they will be able to do.
Declining Oil Prices – There was no good reason for a major drop in oil prices. It was part of the currency manipulation plan to cripple economies thus shoring up the US dollar and sending a strong message about not pricing the oil on a currency other than the USD. Once again the prices will recover and these countries will not drop their guard again.
Gold – This one is deceitful. It is very high now. People are avoiding currency reserves as much as they used to and going into gold. Gold has a tendency to be subject to major price fluctuations. I can easily see gold going to its $250 level of six or seven years ago. The people selling you gold will talk about $2000 an ounce. I do not think the USA and several other nations want people trusting in gold that much and there is nothing like manipulating the market to drive prices down to scare people out of gold. It is not so hard to do. They dump their gold reserves in part to push prices down. Then when prices are down they reacquire their reserves at prices lower than what they got when selling. So they manipulate the market and even make a profit. It is a risky thing to buy when it is this high. Holding, storing and transporting gold also has its problems.
Silver – Silver at under $15 an ounce sounds safer but silver could lose 65% of its value fast and wind up at price levels of less than 10 years ago.
What to do - Diversify. Hold a basket of currencies. Buy government backed bonds in different countries. Hold real estate in different countries. There are a lot of good buys out there now if you know what to look for and where.
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