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Executive Summary – Now in the USA there are 19 Million vacant homes due to foreclosures, bankruptcies, walk-aways and unsold new inventory from builders who were perhaps a bit too optimistic.
Discussion – The vacant homes drag down property values in the neighborhoods where there are a lot of vacant homes making the problem even worse and encouraging more people to walk away from their house. It is thought that 33% of those whose home values drop 20% below the loan balance will walk away from their home and hand the keys back to the bank. In 2008 there was an average of 6,090 new foreclosures a day, 2.22 million foreclosures for the year 2008. Last year the USA housing market went down over 3 trillion dollars in aggregate value. 15% of the homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their house is worth.
The market is sliding and it needs to stop dropping before it can turn upward. Obama seems to be doing nothing but is trying to get some laws passed that may help in the short term. He is trying to run the USA by committee and it is not working. His ex-Clinton experts are not in agreement and the Senate and house do not agree with him. He seems too insecure, inexperienced and scared to try to do anything by himself. Bush who it is rumored bankrupted every business he ever touched at least jumped in and made decisions, not good decisions but decisions. He wrecked the USA, destroyed freedoms and left millions homeless, without jobs, without savings, without health care coverage etc.
Obama has his work cut out for him but he seems to be too weak to do the job. This can have catastrophic results for the country. He seemed to want to buy time with his bailout. Buy time for what is a good question. Congress disagrees with him on the bailout. Things will be far worse by April in the USA. There were almost 600,000 jobs lost in January 2009. Expect a similar number in February. That comes to over a million more jobs lost in two months and he is assembling new panels of experts to try to figure this mess out. Note that he brings in the Federal Reserve guys to lead this panel. They are the ones who caused the trouble to start with.
By the end of the second quarter it is felt by some that civil unrest will start in the USA (think rioting, looting etc use Hurricane Katrina for the model without the flooding). Obama is running out of time fast. If he does get a bailout through then he next needs to figure out what to do next in a few months. The bailout will be a band-aid not a real cure for the problem. The bailout may make the USA appear to be the first country to come out of the crisis in the world but watch for the other shoe to drop in a few months.
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